Heavy Workload Backs Rarely Repeat

What can we expect from studs like Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, or Ladainian Tomlinson in ‘07?

Entering the 2007 fantasy football season, many owners are piecing together their rankings and projections. To help with the RB evaluation process, here is a study of “RB Studs,” and how they perform the year after carrying a heavy workload the previous season. What percentage of these “bell cow backs,” continue to put up big numbers? Shaun Alexander, Tiki Barber, Edgerrin James were all big RB producers two years ago, and for the most part dropped off in ‘06.

What can we expect from ‘06 studs like Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, or Ladainian Tomlinson in ‘07?

We also need to define what constitutes a “Heavy Workload,” for a RB. I tried several different numbers for this formula and settled on 370 f/carries as the benchmark. It netted 30 RBs who reached 370 f/carries a grand total of 45 times over past 27 years. The following are an update of last season, the results of data, my own conclusions, and which RBs could be impacted in ‘07.

Recent Seasons
There weren’t many players who reach this benchmark, but for those that did saw a decrease in fantasy production. Each player had a decrease in carries/receptions, a decreased ff production, or missed time. This is actually quite indicative of the overall historical trend and data for backs after attaining at least 370-f/carries in a season. Check out more on this at FFtoday.com